A new CNN poll was released yesterday. The poll was taken among registered Republicans, which I don’t think is quite as accurate as likely Republican primary voters. That said, the data from both of these polls are remarkably similar: McCain and Huckabee have been rising, and everybody else has been sinking. What’s ironic is that the conservative media seems to be telling us just the opposite. We’re told that Romney is a “full-spectrum conservative,” and “the most conservative viable candidate.” Others laud Thompson as offering the most broad, conservative platform (on taxes, entitlements, etc.). But consider what registered Republicans are saying:
**31% said they would be enthusiastic about McCain, 46% would be satisfied, 18% would be dissatisfied and only 5% would be upset. (The 5% no doubt being the conservative media and their base.)
Full-disclosure: I have my concerns about McCain. He should have understood the need to secure the border before introducing his disastrously doomed immigration bill. He should have supported the Bush tax cuts the first time it came for a vote. I wish he was stronger on traditional marriage. McCain-Feingold is unhelpful.
**For Huckabee: 20% would be enthusiastic, 52% would be satisfied, 20% dissatisfied, and 7% upset.
Almost the same as McCain. Not bad, considering Huckabee has about twenty years less experience and has taken a continual beating from the MSM and the Right Wing Noise Machine (National Review, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Hugh Hewitt, etc.). And Huckabee DOES have a strong immigration plan, DOES support the Bush tax cuts, DOES have a very strong marriage/anti-abortion record, and did NOT support McCain-Feingold (which Thompson supported). Giuliani comes in a bit behind Huckabee. Now consider this:
**For Romney: 14% would be enthusiastic, 50% would be satisfied, 27% dissatisfied, and 6% upset.
64% is the lowest enthusiastic/satisfied score and 33% is the highest dissatisfied/upset score. (Since this poll found that Thompson had only 6% support nationally, they apparently did not gather more detailed data on him.)
(HT: Daniel Larson)
Another way to look at this data is that negative campaigning seems to be a response to declining numbers–and a harbinger that lower numbers are just around the corner. When Huckabee was rising and Giuliani was the front-runner, many (including myself) wondered whether Huckabee’s geniality represented a potential bid for the Veep slot (remember how often they asked him that?). Huckabee never tore Giuliani down, and now has passed him. Meanwhile Thompson and Romney, the only candidates that have initiated negative attacks, on TV and elsewhere, continue to slip. (I’m not denying that others have not responded in kind; I’m just saying that Thompson and Romney started their skirmishes.)