I have reservations about a McCain presidency (immigration reform, traditional marriage, embryonic stem-cell research, campaign finance reform). However, I questioned the wisdom of Dobson’s scathing diatribe against McCain earlier this week for several reasons. For one, it seemed a bit late (though this was not the first time Dobson had blasted McCain). But a larger concern was this: Instead of blast McCain on Tuesday, why not endorse Huckabee on Monday? What has changed about Huckabee in the last 72 hours? If Dobson had endorsed Huckabee on Monday (or last Friday!), that might have energized enough turn-out for Huckabee to win Missouri and Oklahoma (which would have narrowed the delegate gap between Huckabee and McCain by about 30%).
So now what do I think? Many will disagree with me, but I think Dobson’s forthcoming Huckabee endorsement is better late than never. The endorsement (and any influx of new cash) gives Huckabee the credibility to continue. For Dobson personally, the Huckabee endorsement serves as a positive: It might take some of the edge off of what many see as perpetual negativity (given his previous rejections of Guiliani, Thompson, and McCain, as well as his tendency to lambast the decline of cultural mores and values). But will it matter? Can Huckabee win? Well, I’m neither a prophet nor the son of a prophet, but here are a few thoughts:
1. Almost exactly half of the delegates are yet to be won (1183 delegates have not been awarded compared to 1197 which have). Granted, Huckabee trails McCain by 533 delegates, but he only needs to win more than 60% of the remaining delegates to prevent McCain from clinching the nomination with 1191 delegates. And I’m not an expert on GOP policy, but I think that would mean a brokered convention, into which (under this scenario) Huckabee would enter with very strong momentum (even if McCain had more total delegates).
2. Huckabee and McCain are both running positive, gracious campaigns, and seem amiable toward one another. It remains to be seen if this will continue, but if it does, it could be a welcome opportunity for the GOP to wrestle over their identity. There are some significant policy differences between Huckabee and McCain and I wish Huckabee would spend more time explaining them, and why he is a better choice. But the overall friendliness between the men suggests that one could readily get behind the other when necessary.
3. Currently, there are a lot more Democratic primary voters than Republican. I heard on Fox News this past Tuesday that in some states roughly 2 out of every 3 primary votes are being cast for either Obama or Clinton. Both Obama and Clinton, individually, have more than the 4.7 million votes that McCain has accumulated. Conventional wisdom says an ongoing GOP battle delays the leading candidate’s ability to build a national campaign. However, an enlivened two-man debate in an extended primary season could bring out more Republicans (who then might stay engaged in the race and pull the GOP lever in November).
4. I still believe McCain would lose in November. I do not believe he will be able to sufficiently rally conservatives. In some ways, I admire his steadfastness and his willingness to break with his party even if it costs him professionally. But I think it is just that — his brutal honesty (or allegiance to his own ways) — that may be his undoing. Let’s face it — he will only go so far in reaching out to conservatives.
5. Huckabee has proven appeal among African Americans (48% in gubernatorial races in Arkansas) and women, two demographic blocs that often plague GOP candidates. And he can win in the south and Midwest–states that Republicans typically need to win.
Update: For another perspective, see Joe Carter’s unfolding series on How to Save Conservatism. Two installments have been posted and a third is apparently on the way.