Here’s how I figure: Romney’s people leaked out internal polling data saying they were ahead in Ohio (+1), Iowa (+2), and NH (+3). I noticed that Obama is closing out his campaign in Iowa–even though it only has 6 EV. The early vote pattern in Ohio (compared to previous Presidential elections), and the relative crowd sizes at Obama and Romney rallies, also points to Romney.
Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina have been in the bag for Romney for some time now, and Obama doesn’t seem to be seriously contesting them. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania would be a big stretch for Romney–though the crowd sizes in Pennsylvania suggest Romney could win there. Then again, it could be too little, too late.
Peggy Noonan nails it on Romney’s quiet rise.
(And yes, I know my picture is low tech.)